Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.015106 0.017102 0.019280 0.021836 0.024758 0.027998 0.031867
2024-10-20 0.011696 0.014341 0.017482 0.021498 0.026514 0.032596 0.040564
2024-10-27 0.009613 0.012420 0.015943 0.020713 0.027038 0.035187 0.046561
2024-11-03 0.008723 0.011771 0.015778 0.021470 0.029407 0.040176 0.056045
2024-11-10 0.007984 0.011183 0.015560 0.022040 0.031484 0.044887 0.065610
2024-11-17 0.007372 0.010675 0.015356 0.022547 0.033450 0.049572 0.075607
2024-11-24 0.006649 0.009913 0.014687 0.022266 0.034169 0.052426 0.083089
2024-12-01 0.006060 0.009280 0.014126 0.022061 0.034935 0.055366 0.090967
2024-12-08 0.005561 0.008731 0.013631 0.021884 0.035691 0.058317 0.099137
2024-12-15 0.005282 0.008494 0.013593 0.022422 0.037644 0.063389 0.111463
2024-12-22 0.004882 0.008025 0.013132 0.022201 0.038269 0.066243 0.120151
2024-12-29 0.004705 0.007905 0.013230 0.022931 0.040604 0.072289 0.135354
2025-01-05 0.004263 0.007306 0.012479 0.022125 0.040147 0.073339 0.141389
2025-01-12 0.003942 0.006890 0.012012 0.021784 0.040512 0.075951 0.150815
2025-01-19 0.003586 0.006382 0.011335 0.020989 0.039924 0.076661 0.156445
2025-01-26 0.003489 0.006334 0.011483 0.021756 0.042434 0.083676 0.176056
2025-02-02 0.003373 0.006239 0.011533 0.022335 0.044619 0.090260 0.195579
2025-02-09 0.003256 0.006133 0.011552 0.022849 0.046718 0.096879 0.216029
2025-02-16 0.003053 0.005844 0.011194 0.022564 0.047106 0.099893 0.228602
2025-02-23 0.002876 0.005592 0.010888 0.022355 0.047633 0.103253 0.242408
2025-03-02 0.002717 0.005362 0.010607 0.022176 0.048201 0.106756 0.257004
2025-03-09 0.002643 0.005300 0.010663 0.022722 0.050448 0.114328 0.282741
2025-03-16 0.002499 0.005083 0.010380 0.022497 0.050903 0.117749 0.298304